Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 0.929829 1.084421 1.256354 1.461710 1.700310 1.968814 2.293964
2025-01-05 0.653682 0.851433 1.096188 1.421250 1.841679 2.367285 3.074816
2025-01-12 0.502321 0.707341 0.980950 1.372534 1.918644 2.653664 3.719299
2025-01-19 0.404115 0.606406 0.893463 1.330067 1.977439 2.902547 4.327020
2025-01-26 0.350555 0.555742 0.862747 1.354866 2.124123 3.281592 5.158654
2025-02-02 0.323751 0.539011 0.876648 1.443780 2.372933 3.836559 6.321952
2025-02-09 0.292603 0.509498 0.864713 1.487452 2.552471 4.301818 7.399921
2025-02-16 0.262509 0.476528 0.841354 1.506826 2.691113 4.713209 8.436403
2025-02-23 0.234158 0.441968 0.809746 1.505984 2.791995 5.068732 9.415965
2025-03-02 0.208302 0.407936 0.773983 1.491687 2.864734 5.380004 10.350178
2025-03-09 0.188208 0.381705 0.748617 1.492342 2.963297 5.746445 11.427258
2025-03-16 0.164623 0.345288 0.699102 1.439551 2.951540 5.902403 12.115853
2025-03-23 0.159572 0.346044 0.723100 1.537563 3.254121 6.708622 14.209955
2025-03-30 0.140783 0.315629 0.680631 1.494340 3.264203 6.936480 15.158877
2025-04-06 0.123843 0.286710 0.637327 1.443119 3.249800 7.110413 16.013395
2025-04-13 0.109679 0.261912 0.599507 1.398486 3.243099 7.298094 16.918960
2025-04-20 0.102511 0.252159 0.593566 1.424550 3.397426 7.853299 18.715927
2025-04-27 0.100602 0.254584 0.615540 1.517997 3.718582 8.818892 21.578919
2025-05-04 0.095617 0.248787 0.617504 1.563895 3.932732 9.563520 24.012108
2025-05-11 0.089533 0.239363 0.609515 1.584255 4.087057 10.184679 26.222294
2025-05-18 0.082875 0.227506 0.593958 1.583371 4.187747 10.686904 28.196527
2025-05-25 0.076152 0.214536 0.573943 1.568345 4.250213 11.101526 29.998668
2025-06-01 0.070816 0.204603 0.560535 1.569034 4.353959 11.632621 32.172263